POST-TRANSPLANT RELAPSE IN ACUTE LEUKEMIA: COMPARATIVE VALUE OF MRD AND CHIMERISM.
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Background: Relapse remains the leading cause of treatment failure after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) in acute leukemia. Early molecular detection is critical for timely intervention. Measurable residual disease (MRD) and donor chimerism are routinely used for post-transplant monitoring, yet their comparative predictive value is uncertain.
Aims: To compare the prognostic utility of MRD and donor chimerism in predicting relapse after AHSCT in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL).
Methods: This retrospective cohort included 264 adults (186 AML, 78 ALL) who underwent AHSCT. MRD was assessed by multiparametric flow cytometry on day 28 and at months 3 and 12, and chimerism by short tandem repeat PCR. Cox regression identified independent relapse predictors.
Results: Ninety-five patients relapsed (68 AML, 27 ALL). In AML, MRD positivity at month 3 (HR = 3.69, p < 0.001) and mixed chimerism (MC) (HR = 2.47, p = 0.029) were independent relapse predictors and correlated with inferior survival. MRD predicted relapse in 60% of AML cases versus 38% for MC. In ALL, only T-cell lineage independently predicted relapse (HR = 3.94, p = 0.016).
Conclusion: Post-transplant MRD monitoring at month 3 is a stronger independent predictor of relapse than chimerism in AML, while in ALL, the small cohort size limits statistical power; thus, the roles of MRD and chimerism should be interpreted cautiously.
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